MediaPost reporting:
The long-term decline in newspaper advertising revenues will continue
unabated in coming years, according to the latest round of ad spending
forecasts from
PricewaterhouseCoopers, ZenithOptimedia, and Magna Global. All three
forecasters see more drops and a diminishing share of overall ad
spending in the middle years of this decade.
PwC
sees print advertising revenues for North American newspapers falling at
a compound annual rate of 4.2% from $22.6 billion in 2011 to $18.3
billion in 2016, for a total loss of $4.3 billion or 19%
over this period. As in previous years, the declines in developed
markets, including North American and Europe, will be mitigated somewhat
by growth in developing markets in two regions: Asia-Pacific
and Latin America.
ZenithOptimedia’s global forecast is
similarly pessimistic, with total newspaper revenues worldwide set to
drop from $96.1 billion in 2011 to $94.2 billion in
2012, $93.2 billion in 2013, and $92.8 billion in 2014. Growth in
emerging markets will fail to offset steep declines in developed
markets.
According to ZO, the medium’s total share of
ad spending will drop from 20.2% in 2011 to 16.7% in 2014.
Magna
Global also sees more declines ahead, with total newspaper revenues in
North America set to fall 6.6% this year, while
global newspaper ad revenues drop 1% to $85.5 billion.
The decline in newspaper advertising revenues has been
dramatic. From peak revenues of $49.3 billion in
2005, total ad revenues tumbled to $23.9 billion in 2011, according to
the Newspaper Association of America, for a 51.5% drop in just six
years.
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