poynter reporting:
It is time again for the annual December media conference for
investors in New York City, starting today. And once again, borrowing
the well-worn line from “I Love Lucy,” executive teams from
publicly-traded newspaper organizations “have a lot of ‘splaining to
do.”
No doubt about it, 2011 has been another terrible year financially
for the industry – though the “why” matters. Will news organizations
blame it all on a soft economy? Or will they talk candidly about
competition for digital marketing dollars, the one part of the
advertising pie still expanding, with an array of potent competing
players?
I see four other related questions that make sense to ask right now.
What about 2012? Analyst and consultant Ken Doctor wrote a few weeks ago that newspapers are budgeting for continued ad revenue declines of 10 percent or so (on top of those in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011). If that’s the case, where will they find more savings or significant new revenue? Can they be profitable?
How much would a recovering economy help? Just in
the last few weeks, there has been mildly encouraging economic news on
jobs and real estate. Autos continue to do well. A revival in these
three traditional key categories would be particularly helpful to the
hardest hit newspaper organizations in Florida, California and other
slumping Sunbelt cities. It would also be a test of which companies have
done best following the old classified business into digital formats.
And it might shed light on how much of the steep advertising declines of
the last five years tracks the economic cycle and how much is loss of
share.
So where do the companies stand in transformation to multi-platform and, eventually, mostly digital companies? The
“we-get-it” story about the need to grow digital and escape
over-reliance on print advertising has been around for quite a while
now. Check the Gannett home page and
you will find no mention of newspapers — though print still accounts
for roughly 40 percent of the company’s revenue (my estimate, Gannett
financials are inexact on the point).
http://www.poynter.org/latest-news/business-news/the-biz-blog/154818/five-tough-questions-for-newspaper-organizations-as-they-face-investors-this-week/
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